How Serious Is Swine Flu?
Posted by admin | Posted in virus | Posted on 05-09-2009
The United Kingdom has become the latest country to confirm cases of the
swine flu. At the same time, the World Health Organization has raised its
alert level from 3 to 4. With 150 people already killed in Mexico, the WHO
revealed that the influenza virus has the sustainability for human-to-human
transmission and can cause community level outbreaks.
One can recall a similar outbreak known as bird flu which was more risky
than H1N1 virus. According to Professor Neil Ferguson of the World Health
Organization, H1N1 is nothing when compared to other similar outbreaks such
as SARS or the 1918 Spanish flu.
According to the professor, the evidence is clear that the United Kingdom
is headed for a swine influenza pandemic in the coming months. However, it
would be difficult to determine the extent of the epidemic since this is
usually the time of the year when flu is prominent in the United Kingdom.
It is likewise almost sure that if the H1N1 outbreak disappears in the
coming weeks, there might still be an outbreak of the virus in the autumn.
If the situation indeed transforms into an epidemic, then 30% – 40% of the
general population might become susceptible to infection. Professor
Ferguson believes that any outbreak might become longer since the summer
season in the United Kingdom is fast approaching.
On the other hand, Sir Liam Donaldson, who is concurrent Chief Medical
Officer for England, believes that this new strain of H1N1 virus is
something which people has natural immunity and has not received any
vaccination yet. For this reason, one becomes susceptible to infection and
spread to other people.
However, there is no sufficient information about the virus yet and H1N1 is
still a subject of studies by major laboratories in the world. Once there
is sufficient information about the virus, only then can it be possible to
make improved predictions about individuals who are at higher risk and
likely to have serious complications.
At present, the situation in Mexico is creating confusion and it is hard to
make a firm a conclusion about what is likely to happen. In any case, there
is a need to be ready for any untoward incidents that may happen.
Professor John Oxford, meanwhile, believes that the H1N1 outbreak is not as
alarming as the H5N1 bird flu virus. He believes that the country can
provide the basic H1N1 immunity for the population. The outbreaks outside
of Mexico have not resulted to deaths which is an indication that the virus
is not that aggressive.
Aside from that, the summer months is fast approaching so it is less
probable for the H1N1 virus to cause an outbreak as well. In any case, the
United Kingdom has enough antiviral medicines to treat half of the
population.
With this in mind, there is no cause for worry about the H1N1 virus, as it
appears that it would cause an outbreak that would be felt all over the
world and increase mortality rates.
The outbreak of H1N1 began in Mexico City and as of today has resulted to
the death of 42 people and more than 800 confirmed cases of swine flu
infection. Although it has now spread in 22 countries, it is believed that
this new virus outbreak would not be result to a pandemic and is milder
than similar virus infections.

